Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/28/2012
The final polls before Sunday’s presidential election find frontrunner Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI-PVEM), who has led throughout the campaign, to have an advantage of 10 to 17 percentage points over his nearest rival, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD-PT-MC). Most polls find López Obrador leading Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN) by around five points; the fourth candidate, Gabriel Quadri (PANAL), trails the others by over twenty percent. Support for both Peña Nieto and López Obrador has risen slightly in the final weeks of the campaign, and the percentage of undecided voters has declined to its lowest point.
A wide margin?
Three new polls find Peña Nieto ahead by more than 15 percent. Peña Nieto leads by 17.1 percent in the new poll from El Universal/The Dallas Morning News/Buendía y Laredo (June 22-24), with 45 percent of the effective vote (excluding non-respondents). López Obrador polls 27.9 percent and Vázquez Mota 24.4 percent. Quadri has 2.7 percent support. The percentage of undecided voters is 12.4 percent.
The El Sol de México/Parametría poll (June 18-23) finds Peña Nieto ahead by slightly less, at 15.2 percent. The PRI candidate polls 43.9 percent, while López Obrador polls 28.7 percent. Vázquez Mota is five percentage points behind, with 23.6 percent support, and Quadri polls 3.8 percent. Nineteen percent of those surveyed did not give a preference.
Similarly, in the Mitofsky poll (June 22-24), Peña Nieto’s effective lead is 15.1 percent. He polls 44.5 percent, compared to López Obrador’s 29.4. As in the Parametría poll, Vázquez Mota appears more than five percentage points behind the PRD candidate, with 24.1 percent. Quadri polls 2.0 percent. Fourteen percent of those surveyed did not respond, the lowest percentage in Mitofsky polls from the campaign.
A closer race?
Two other polls reflect a slightly tighter race. According to SDP Noticias/Covarrubias (June 21-24), Peña Nieto leads by 11.0 percentage points: he polls 41.0 percent compared to López Obrador’s 30.0 percent and Vázquez Mota’s 26.0 percent. Support for Quadri is at three percent, and only six percent were non-respondents.
Lastly, Reforma (June 21-24) finds Peña Nieto’s advantage to be ten percent, leading López Obrador with 41 percent support compared to the PRD candidate’s 31 percent. Vázquez Mota trails at 24 percent, and Quadri with four percent. In this poll, 19.2 percent did not give their preference and 2.1 percent said they would annul their ballots.
For a visual tracking of the standings over the three-month-long campaign, see ADN Político’s graph of surveys from ten major polling companies. For more analysis, see “The Polls” on The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide.