The Week in Review: 5/29/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 5/29/2012

Student marches rocked Mexico City over the past week, injecting a new dynamic into the race for the first time, as Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) takes over second place in a Mitofsky poll.

New poll shows (limited) impact of presidential debate

Andrew Selee, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 5/9/2012

Selee

The latest in the daily tracking polls by GEA-ISA reflects what many suspected after the debate: Enrique Peña Nieto survived mostly unhurt, with a better showing than most expected, and Andrés Manuel Lépez Obrador positioned himself well to move into a tie with Josefina Vázquez Mota for second place (see our analysis).

The campaign remains fluid, and with almost two months and another debate still to go there can still be surprises that alter the dynamics.  But so far nothing has happened to alter Peña Nieto’s lead, and Vázquez Mota, who at one point seemed the best poised to challenge this lead, seems stuck in place while Lopez Obrador rises slightly.  But, then again, in electoral politics anything can happen…

Commentary on the Latest Poll Results

Andrew Selee,* The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 4/25/2012

Today’s Reforma poll (subscription required) suggests several interesting developments in Mexico’s otherwise calm election cycle.

First, the distance between Peña Nieto (PRI, 42%) and his two rivals may be less than often thought.  He is still 13 points above Vázquez Mota (PAN, 29%) and 15 points above López Obrador (PRD, 27%) – which is no small difference -  but this is less of a lead than other polls have shown. It is also right on the threshhold that would give the PRI a majority in Congress (for which they need 42% of the congressional vote).

Perhaps equally important, a full quarter of the voters have not made up their mind and 15% may still change their opinion, a significant swing vote if anything emerges to shift the campaign narrative. Finally, López Obrador is clearly on an upswing, while Vázquez Mota appears to be declining slightly in support.

The conventional wisdom is not necessarily wrong. Peña Nieto is still ahead by a significant margin, Vázquez Mota is in second place, and López Obrador is in third, but there appears to be far more fluidity in this election than we have thought in the past.

 

*Andrew Selee is Director of the Mexico Institute.

The Week in Review: 4/23/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 4/23/2012 

With just over two months left before the July 1^st elections, the PRI’s Peña Nieto continues to secure his lead in the presidential contest as the PAN and PRD candidates struggle for second place. Some polls put the PRI-Green Party (PV) alliance ahead in congressional elections, while the PRD’s mayoral candidate leads by a wide margin in the Mexico City race. The polls are not promising for the governing PAN party.

The Week in Review: 3/26/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 3/26/2012

In this last week before the campaign reopens, a new poll shows Enrique Peña Nieto pulling away from his competition while Reforma highlights each candidate’s energy policy. While all candidates oppose outright privatization of the state-owned Pemex, two in particular favor increasing private participation and greater competition.

The Week in Review: 3/5/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 3/5/2012

Biden

A new poll shows Enrique Peña Nieto ahead of Josefina Vázquez Mota by only seven points, while another suggests a difference of 17 points. Meanwhile, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden visits Mexico in the midst of a debate in the region about drug legalization; we look at the stances of the three Mexican presidential candidates on the issue.

Mexico Institute Director Andrew Selee on the latest El Universal poll

Andrew Selee, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 2/23/2012

In the latest El Universal poll, Enrique Peña Nieto maintains a clear lead, but Josefina Vázquez Mota also goes up significantly and her positive numbers overall improve. Andrés Manuel López Obrador seems stuck in third place, but his positive numbers also improved dramatically, which suggests a potential for further growth.

Equally interesting are the respondents’ views of the parties and what they would do. It is clear that the PRI strong suit is the perception of “competence,” the PAN “a better government,” and the PRD a “government that works for the people,” which have been the central messages of the candidates so far.

Click here to view the poll results…

2/13/2013: The presidential candidates

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 2/13/2013

Fresh off her victory in the PAN primary, Josefina Vázquez Mota has solidified second place in the presidential race, according to a new Mitofsky poll. Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) is clearly still the frontrunner with 40 percent support, but no longer seems invincible. From the peak of 25 points, Peña Nieto’s lead is 16 points above Vázquez Mota (she polls 24 percent). Vázquez Mota outpolled Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) by more than the margin of error for the first time, six points ahead of his 17.7 percent. (Note: the second graph reflects the “effective vote,” excluding those who gave no preference.)

The Week in Review: 1/17/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 1/17/2012

Peña Nieto

A new poll confirms Enrique Peña Nieto’s lead, but by a decreasing margin. Michoacán state officials prepare for a new mayoral election in Morelia, but avoid a rematch in the gubernatorial race. The Mexico City mayoral contest heats up, and the campaign teams of several potential presidential candidates are expanded. Lastly, two American analysts assess the nature and impact of the presidential race.

1/10/2012: Preferences by candidate and party (Mitofsky data)

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 1/10/2012

New Mitofsky data shows that the closest presidential election would be between Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI), Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD), and Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN). Vázquez Mota continues to be the favorite of the three possible PAN contenders; the party will select its candidate in February.

• Peña Nieto polls ahead of candidates from all other parties, but the breakdown varies based on the PAN’s candidate. Vázquez Mota would poll 21 percent compared to Peña Nieto’s 42 percent and López Obrador’s 17 percent. Santiago Creel would beat López Obrador, but by only one point (19 to 18 percent). Ernesto Cordero would trail the PRD candidate by 4 points (15 to 19 percent).