The candidates and parties made a final push in the days leading up to the “blackout period” that began February 16^th and ends on March 30^th. Andrés Manuel López Obrador addressed businessmen and agricultural workers, as the PRI established its electoral platform. The Catholic Church was criticized for releasing “voting guidelines,” and Mexico Institute colleagues assess the impact of the PAN’s first woman presidential candidate.

The “pause” in the electoral race

Zuckerman

The 2007 electoral reform law established a clear timeline between the end of the primary season (February 16^th) and the official beginning of presidential campaigns on March 30^th.   In the intervening period, candidates are permitted to appear in the press and to be interviewed, but cannot ask for votes or disseminate “election propaganda.” The candidates, political parties, and analysts alike have questioned this “blackout period” largely because the rules released by the Federal Electoral Institute appear vague. Political analyst Leo Zuckerman criticized the “stupid” electoral law for freezing the current standings: he argues that the clear beneficiary is Peña Nieto, since the two trailing candidates, Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN) and López Obrador (PRD), will struggle to catch up if they cannot campaign for six weeks.

The PRD

López Obrador

Andrés Manuel López Obrador was busy leading up to the closure, continuing to moderate his image and provide concrete ideas about his potential government. He addressed businessmen last week in Nuevo León with the message: “I am not against you.” Later, he affirmed that his government’s priority would also lie with rural areas: he committed to “rescuing” the campo from the “neglect and disaster” that followed the neoliberal reforms beginning in 1983.

The PRI

Paredes and Peña Nieto

The Green Party officially nominated Enrique Peña Nieto as its presidential candidate this week, as expected. The PRI’s candidate also accompanied Beatriz Paredes as she registered for the Mexico City mayoral race.

The National Political Council of the PRI approved its election platform for 2012-2018. The themes include: democracy, security and justice, economic growth, competitiveness and employment, development and social equality, environment and sustainable development, and Mexico in the world.

The PAN

Vázquez Mota

The Mexico Institute’s Eric L. Olson and Diana Murray Watts assess the impact of the PAN’s first woman candidate, Josefina Vázquez Mota, on the party’s chances in a new blog post:

Vázquez Mota’s candidacy may appeal to Mexicans generally and women in particular on several fronts – for its historic nature, and amongst women who feel they are at a political and economic disadvantage amongst the lingering machista attitudes in Mexican society. On the other hand, as Vázquez Mota herself recognized, this election will not be won solely on her gender or appeals to young women. [Her] bigger challenge for her will be creating some separation between herself and the last two PAN governments (which she served), and thus avoid turning her candidacy into a referendum on these two somewhat unpopular administrations. She will need to find an independent voice for her campaign without breaking completely with her party and its base.

The Church and the State

The Roman Catholic Church in Mexico has come under fire for issuing voting “guidelines.” The “pastoral guidelines” do not mention any particular party, but dictate that Catholics should not “choose as a political option those who support or promote false rights or liberties that attack the teachings contained in the Holy Scriptures, tradition and doctrine of the Church.” They should also “be alert to the commitments of the candidates and their parties to respect the foremost of all rights, which is the right to life, from the moment of conception.”

According to The Associated Press, the recommendations seem to be aimed especially at candidates from the PRD, which legalized both  gay marriage and abortion in Mexico City  The document seems carefully constructed to skirt the ban on all religious groups from engaging in electoral politics. The law prohibits the church from  supporting or opposing a candidate or party.

The parties

Lastly, The Los Angeles Times has a fantastic primer on the three main political parties in Mexico and why the simple labels of left (PRD), right (PAN), and center (PRI) are misleading.

The selection of Josefina Vázquez Mota on February 5th as the PAN’s standard bearer for next July’s presidential election has injected a new historical element into the contest. As the first woman presidential candidate from a major political party, many are wondering whether Mexico is ready to elect its first “Presidenta.”

We had the opportunity to put the question to her directly during a forum the Mexico Institute cosponsored with the Inter-American Dialogue on October 21^st, 2011 (see her full presentation here.) Her response was unequivocal: “I have the absolute certainty that Mexico is ready for a woman to be President of the Republic.”

While acknowledging that Mexico still has problems of machismo and misogyny, Vázquez Mota emphasized that women’s role in society has been changing and noted the important economic contribution women are making in Mexico as a sign of that change. According to the former cabinet secretary, roughly 7 million of Mexican households are now headed by women. She also pointed to her own candidacy as evidence of change in public attitudes. The PAN is generally considered a right of center party with roots in a socially conservative Catholic church, so one might expect them to be the least likely to choose a women as their candidate.

Overall, women’s participation in Mexican political life has been changing for some time. Since earning the right to vote in 1953, women have experienced varying levels of success in politics. According to the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) women now represent a slight majority (51.9%) of all registered voters (IFE Statistics, IFE Historical Election Results ). Yet their participation in elected office lags farther behind. Women have fared the worst in local elected offices, having held only six governorships throughout Mexico’s history, and only 4% of mayoral positions as recently as 2009. Women have fared slightly better at the federal level including, most recently, President Calderón’s decision to name three women to cabinet-level positions: Georgina Kessel as secretary of energy; Patricia Espinosa as secretary of foreign relations; and Josefina Vázquez Mota as secretary of education (WPR). In the lower house of the Mexican Congress, nearly one-quarter (124, or 24.8%) of the 500 seats are held by women, and in the Mexican Senate just over 20% (28, or 21.8%) of the seats are held by women (UNDP).

Other indicators of women’s status in Mexican society can be found in educational levels and their participation in the labor force. Roughly 56% of Mexican women have reached secondary education or higher, a rate that trails men by about 6 percentage points. Women’s participation in the labor force is significantly lower, with just 43.2% labor force participation for women, or roughly half of their male counterparts participation at 80.6%. (Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2011 for Mexico).

So Vázquez Mota’s candidacy may appeal to Mexicans generally and women in particular on several fronts – for its historic nature, and amongst women who feel they are at a political and economic disadvantage amongst the lingering machista attitudes in Mexican society.

On the other hand, as Vázquez Mota herself recognized, this election will not be won solely on her gender or appeals to young women: “I would like to say that on the subject of being a woman, I am not running a campaign based on my gender.” Rather, the issues of primary concern to voters in this election have more to do with public security and economic well-being for the country, and quality government services such as healthcare and public education. As such, she will be competing with two other candidates that also have important things to say.

Likely a bigger challenge Vázquez Mota will be her ability to create some separation between herself and the last two PAN governments (which she served), and thus avoid turning her candidacy into a referendum on these two somewhat unpopular administrations. She will need to find an independent voice for her campaign without breaking completely with her party and its base.

This represents an enormous challenge as Vázquez Mota faces off against a young telegenic PRI candidate (Enrique Peña Nieto) that can also appeal to young people and has the benefit of a unified PRI behind him; and an increasingly unified and moderated left in the figure of Andrés Manuel López Obrador.  If the election were held today, Enrique Peña Nieto would most likely win hands down, but much can happen in the next four months and maybe a dynamic and inspiring woman such as Vázquez Mota can turn the polls upside-down. The question remains: Will Mexico follow in the footsteps of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Nicaragua, Panama and Costa Rica by choosing a woman as its chief executive? Or will the candidate’s gender become less relevant as policy debates and campaigning heat up? That’s what makes this election so interesting to follow.

Fresh off her victory in the PAN primary, Josefina Vázquez Mota has solidified second place in the presidential race, according to a new Mitofsky poll. Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) is clearly still the frontrunner with 40 percent support, but no longer seems invincible. From the peak of 25 points, Peña Nieto’s lead is 16 points above Vázquez Mota (she polls 24 percent). Vázquez Mota outpolled Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) by more than the margin of error for the first time, six points ahead of his 17.7 percent. (Note: the second graph reflects the “effective vote,” excluding those who gave no preference.)

López Obrador

A new poll shows Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN) consolidating her second-place position, narrowing the gap with Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) and pulling away from Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD). Observers assess the impact of a woman candidate on the presidential contest, as López Obrador reiterates his security plans and Enrique Peña Nieto, according to strategist James Taylor, misses the opportunity to engage the growing Mexican middle class.

The PAN

Vázquez Mota

Fresh off her victory in the PAN primary, Josefina Vázquez Mota has solidified second place in the presidential race, according to a new Mitofsky poll. Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) is clearly still the frontrunner with 40 percent support, but no longer seems invincible. From the peak of 25 points, Peña Nieto’s lead is 16 points above Vázquez Mota (she polls 24 percent). Vázquez Mota outpolled Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) by more than the margin of error for the first time, six points ahead of his 17.7 percent.

Observers wonder about the impact of a woman candidate on the presidential contest. So far Peña Nieto outpolls Vázquez Mota among women by 14 percent (according to the Mitofsky poll), but that may change. Certainly the PAN, at least, seems to be betting that a woman candidate will boost party appeal. Shannon K. O’Neil at the Council on Foreign Relations believes they may be right: “She has a chance precisely because she is a woman,” she told Forbes (O’Neil also has a nice profile of Vázquez Mota in Foreign Affairs). Mexico Institute Director Andrew Selee agrees that her nomination will alter the race: “The fact that she is a woman certainly injects a new story line into the election campaign,” he told The Associated Press. “Certainly people will find that attractive.”

The PRD

Andrés Manuel López Obrador has committed to pulling the military off the streets within six months if elected president. He has repeatedly called for a reorganization of security forces and for the creation of a unified police, while emphasizing that reforming social policy to target poverty and inequality is fundamental to overcoming the threat of organized crime.

The PRI

Taylor

In an op-ed in The Dallas Morning News, political strategist and Mexico Institute Board member James Taylor criticizes Peña Nieto’s (and López Obrador’s) stump speeches aimed at Mexico’s poor. The “populist rhetoric… rings hollow” to voters in a now middle-class nation:

While the U.S. bemoans the decline of its own middle, Mexico’s has risen. Studies show that this center is now over 60 million strong, more than half of Mexico’s population. These families own their homes, buy cars, buy life insurance, take vacations and fuel the rapid growth of private schools and universities. They care about what middle classes everywhere care about — family, education, economic opportunity and security. They vote and are increasingly independent — potential swing voters that could turn the July elections.

He cautions that the real challenge for the winner of the July election will be finding a way to “engage the middle class and harness the benefits of a diversified and growing economy while continuing to fight organized crime and strengthening the rule of law.”

The PAN yesterday selected Josefina Vázquez Mota as its presidential candidate; she easily beat her rivals with 55 percent of the vote (with 88 percent counted). Meanwhile, the PRI battles two possible corruption scandals and the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador touts his security plan. Lastly, the latest Mitofsky Poll has good news for the likely candidates.

The PAN

Josefina Vázquez Mota won 55 percent of the PAN primary vote yesterday (2/5) and with it her party’s nod for the presidential race. She was long considered the frontrunner, so the result was unsurprising. She is the closest competitor to the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto, though still trailing, and is the first female presidential candidate for any of the major parties. The Mexico Institute’s Eric L. Olson commented to The Huffington Post that this adds some “uncertainty” to the race: “There’s never been a strong female presidential candidate for any other major party before. It adds that historical element and maybe some excitement.”

The candidates had participated in a debate last week that focused largely on security. While only Vázquez Mota will go through to the presidential race, the ideas of the former rivals are relevant as may be incorporated into her strategy. Mexico Institute colleagues Diana Murray Watts and Eric L. Olson analyzed the proposals and positions of the three candidates last week:

“In our estimation, candidates were typically long on emphasizing the importance of an issue but short on specific proposals for addressing the challenges posed by crime and violence. As for last Tuesday’s debate, the candidates did not enter into a deeper discussion about the issues of major concern to Mexicans, and consequently missed an opportunity to put forward creative ideas and solutions.”

The PRI

Two possible corruption scandals exploded in the PRI last week, which its presidential candidate has denied. First, three former PRI governors from the border region are being investigated for unknown federal crimes.  The Attorney General’s office has not announced the charges or the individuals targeted yet, but The Washington Post points out that organized crime, drug trafficking and money laundering are all considered federal offenses in Mexico and that three former Tamaulipas governors confirmed they are being investigated.

Second, an official in the PRI-governed state of Veracruz was found with $1.9million cash in his luggage last week. He defended the act, a surprising one in a country where carrying large amounts of cash is unusual, as a hurried, legitimate payment to a consulting company. The PAN said the explanation was an “insult to the intelligence of Mexicans:

“It is no coincidence that this amount of money was taken to Toluca … and that is precisely where the campaign of the PRI’s favored son, Enrique Pena Nieto, operates,” the party said in a statement.

Enrique Peña Nieto has emphatically denied the charge, and decried what he considers to be politically motivated targeting in both cases. Analysts in another Post article suggest the claims of corruption and political moves may both be true.

Lastly, a new Excélsior poll suggests candidates’ personal issues, such as the recent revelation that Peña Nieto had two previously unknown children out of wedlock, matter little to voters.

The PRD

Presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador has asked voters to trust his plan to address drug-related violence in the country, which he says will resolve the violence “in little time.” He has stressed the need for a unified police force and has promised to end violations of human rights.

The polls

Andrew Selee, Director of the Mexico Institute, says the latest Mitofsky poll on the presidential candidates has “good news” for all the candidates:

The latest Mitofsky poll has good news for all the likely candidates.  Peña Nieto continues to lead the pack by a large margin despite some recent turbulence in his campaign, and his image remains overwhelmingly positive in the face of recent scandals.  Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador remains in third place, but his overall public image has improved and he remains in striking distance of second place (and, some might add, of first place if Peña Nieto’s candidacy were to drop in the polls).  And Josefina Vázquez Mota continues to be extremely well placed to start her campaign in second place — a distant second place, but also in striking distance of first place if Peña Nieto drops in the polls.

On January 31^st, the three remaining candidates for the PAN’s presidential nomination met at the party’s national headquarters for a second debate before party members and affiliated members chose their candidate on February fifth. The nationally broadcast debate was the second between former Congressional leader Josefina Vázquez Mota, former Treasury Secretary Ernesto Cordero, and former Senator Santiago Creel. It was also the first held under new rules designed to encourage interaction and debate between the candidates. Previous debates had been criticized for their tameness because debate rules only allowed candidates to present their positions but not address or debate the positions of others.

Several issues were on the agenda at the debate including the fight against poverty, sustainable development, justice and security. Given the importance of the security debate, we provide the following excerpts from the candidates’ declarations during the debate. (The translations are our own and unofficial).

Santiago Creel Miranda

“The best way to achieve economic growth is through security. If there is no security, a climate for investment cannotexist; and if there is no investment, then everything else matters less.”

“I am qualified to bring peace and tranquility to families through a new public security strategy that, at the same time, is equally important in order to reach economic development,” he added.

“The best way to defend the human rights of Mexicans is with public security. This is why I want to face and fix the problem of violence in the country through a strategy that is different from that of the current administration. I acknowledge the good things that have been accomplished by this administration, but my strategy will follow a different path.”

Josefina Vázquez Mota

“It is urgent that we build a better and trustworthy police, police officers who can defend families from the crimes that hurt them the most: robbery, homicide, kidnapping, and extortion.”

“When speaking on the importance of federalism it is unavoidable to speak about the armed forces, who will return to their quarters only when you [Mexican citizens] feel you can count on police officers that are trustworthy. This is a concern that people in Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and even in Michoacán have expressed to me.”

Ernesto Cordero

“Any measures taken to help empower the citizenry are something that we should support. Anything that allows the Mexican state to generate the (congressional) majority required to move forward with the structural reforms that are needed in the country should be promoted.”

“…there must be progress so that not only the citizenry but also the judiciary can take the initiative to present legal reforms to Congress, which will enable the Supreme Court of Justice to function.”

The one-hour debate was moderated by journalist Leonardo Curzio, who brought to the table a specific set of questions that had been determined ahead of time.  Unfortunately, new debate rules allowing for more interaction between candidates did not generate the kind of lively debate that was expected.

For example, Vázquez Mota appeared to ignore Cordero’s questions regarding her alleged absence from 6 per cent of the 135 voting sessions in Congress. Instead, she spoke of her political accomplishments and cited a letter that President Calderón had sent to congratulate her for her commitment to Congress. Thus, Cordero was perhaps the only candidate who posed a direct question during the debate and did not get a direct response from his political opponent. Outside the debate, Vázquez Mota reached to the Mexican media to publicly announce that she had attended 133 of the 135 congressional sessions.

In our estimation, candidates were typically long on emphasizing the importance of an issue but short on specific proposals for addressing the challenges posed by crime and violence. As for last Tuesday’s debate, the candidates did not enter into a deeper discussion about the issues of major concern to Mexicans, and consequently missed an opportunity to put forward creative ideas and solutions.

The PAN candidates head into a second debate tomorrow (1/31) under new rules designed to make the event more “exciting,” while political analysts assess the campaigns and the PRI’s prospects in the Mexico City and presidential election.

The PAN

The head of the PAN’s National Elections Committee has announced new rules for the primary debate tomorrow (1/31) at 8pm Central time. The candidates will participate in six rounds, five of which will feature questions about security, poverty, economic growth, and the environment. In the other round, the candidates will each present three policy proposals. The changes come in response to criticism that the first debate, as we noted here, lacked the dynamism of an actual debate.

The PRI

Paredes

Political analyst Leo Zuckerman argues that priísta Beatriz Paredes’ candidacy in the Mexico City mayoral race is a mistake. While she was ahead in the polls, mostly due to her greater name recognition, before the other two parties honed in on their candidates, , her competition is now fierce. According to a new El Universal poll, she is now 13 points down from the PRD’s Miguel Ángel Mancera (36 percent support) and tied with the PAN’s Isabel Miranda de Wallace (23 percent support). Mancera, Zuckerman notes, proved to be a strong candidate in the PRD’s internal poll, while Wallace is increasingly popular and nationally recognized as a courageous social rights activist. Paredes, on the other hand, is seen as a member of the PRI’s “old guard.”

For more on the substance of the race, see Duncan Wood’s new post on the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ website highlighting the centrality of security.

Lastly, the PRI’s presidential nominee Enrique Peña Nieto acknowledged that he had two children out of wedlock during his first marriage. The repercussions of the admission, in which he defended himself as a good father, have been muted thus far.

Other news

Camp

Roderic Camp of Claremont McKenna College spoke at the Woodrow Wilson Center about the upcoming presidential contest:

“It will be interesting to see what PRI is really proposing that will be different from PAN on two major issues,” Camp said. “One is how do you increase personal income, and how do you reduce violence, therefore increase personal security.”

Mancera

Former Mexico City attorney general Miguel Ángel Mancera wins the PRD’s internal poll, and with it the nod to represent the party in the July 1^st mayoral election. The PRI breaks its electoral alliance with PANAL, the party led by teachers union boss Elba Esther Gordillo, while the presidential hopefuls from the PAN participate in a debate. The PRD´s presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador signs an economic pact with business leaders. Lastly, Mexican Institute colleagues offer views on the evolving electoral landscape.

The PRD

The results of polls conducted among PRD supporters in Mexico City designed to help the party select its mayoral candidate in the July 1^st election reveal a strong preference for Miguel Ángel Mancera, the city’s former attorney general. He surpassed the President of the Mexico City Legislative Assembly, Alejandra Barrales, his closest competitor in the lead up to the January 14-16 survey period and a member of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidential campaign team. Mancera has vowed to follow the example of Marcelo Ebrard, the current mayor, and López Obrador, if elected. In a November survey, the PRD received the support of 32 percent of intended votes, compared to 21 percent for the PRI and 10 for the PAN. However, the same poll showed Mancera was about half as well known as the PRI frontrunner Beatriz Paredes (45 vs. 88 percent). His candidacy will be ratified by the party’s state executive committee on February 11^th.

López Obrador met and signed an economic pact last week with businessmen in the northern industrial hub of Saltillo. He committed not to raise taxes in real terms, to fight corruption in the energy sector, and to improve institutional coordination in his security policy if elected. To see more of López Obrador’s ideas, see Reuters’ extensive compilation of his policy proposals on security, the economic competitiveness, and energy policy, among other issue areas.

The PAN

The PAN candidates

The three PAN hopefuls for their party’s presidential nod participated in a debate on January 18^th. The event was a let-down for many observers; perhaps due in part to a “non-aggression pact” the candidates had agreed to previously. The daily Reforma complained that the candidates took turns enumerating their own policy ideas instead of debating them.

In the lead-up to the debate, El Informador asked three analysts about the impact of the PAN’s prolonged primary race on its place in the polls. The commentators concurred that the party’s “pre-campaign,” scheduled to end February 5^th, has lasted months longer than the internal contests of the PRI and PRD, but has hardly affected the party’s overall support.

The PRI

Gordillo

On January 21^st, the PRI broke its electoral alliance with Nueva Alianza (PANAL), the party led by Elba Esther Gordillo, the powerful head of the teachers union. Enrique Peña Nieto downplayed the break, indicating it would have no effect on the party’s performance in July. The PAN’s Ernesto Cordero suggested considering PANAL as a possible ally, as it was in 2006; his opponent in the PAN primary Josefina Vázquez Mota dismissed the idea.

The PRI leadership in Mexico City agreed to hold an open poll to select its mayoral candidate for the summer election, as it did in 2006.

Other news and analysis

Mexico Institute Director Andrew Selee has two interesting new blog pieces related to the electoral contest. First, he looks at three possible scenarios for the July election outcome as he answers “Five Questions about Mexico and U.S.-Mexico Relations in 2012.” Second, he reviews recent publications by the presidential candidates: while “none of the three books is sufficient to understand the candidates themselves,” he writes, “[…] they offer an important glimpse into their thinking and the arguments they want to make to be elected president in 2012.”

In other news, Fox News Latino reports that few Mexican citizens residing in the U.S. are expected to vote in the upcoming presidential election, despite relaxed voting registration requirements. ITAM Professor Duncan Wood attributed part of this to a mismatch in the timing in the registration window, which ended on January 15^th, and the actual campaigns, which officially begin in March:

“It’s a severe problem in the system. The lack of access to what is going on in the political campaigns and the fact the political parties are not active (in the U.S.) is what is holding it back.”

Lastly, celebrated Mexican author Carlos Fuentes lamented to host Carmen Aristeguí that Mexico is caught between “big problems” and “mediocre presidential candidates,” while the Council on Foreign Relations’ Shannon O’Neil looks at “How the Next [Mexican] President Can Reduce Poverty and Inequality.”

Selee

It is a worthwhile exercise to read the books that the Mexican presidential candidates have produced over the past two years.  Each gives a look into the perspectives and unique approach of the candidate – or at least what they hope to project to the Mexican electorate in the upcoming elections.

Enrique Peña Nieto’s book, México: la gran esperanza, Un Estado Eficaz para una democracia de resultados, is the most recent and the most complete one.  It provides a comprehensive proposal for a new PRI administration under his leadership, with the central thesis that Mexico needs to build an efficient and effective state to deal with its contemporary problems.  He addresses issues that range from energy reform, allowing public/private partnerships, to fiscal changes in order to raise revenue to political reform to build a majority-based government.  A cynic might note that the PRI has supported few of these efforts to date, and that the candidate himself stumbled badly in presenting the book at the International Book Fair in Guadalajara, but the book itself is filled with impressive statistics and well-reasoned proposals.  It will be up to Mexican citizens to decide if they believe these proposals or the one who makes them.

Josefina Vázquez’s book, Nuestra Oportunidad: Un México para todos, is a set of interviews with 22 world leaders about Mexico’s challenges, and it contains a wealth of insightful material on Mexico seen from the outside.  The interviewees range in geographical and ideological place from Enrique Yglesias to Condeleezza Rice to Michelle Bachelet to Alvaro Uribe, and many of the chapters are worth reading simply for what these people have to say about Mexico’s future.  But for election watchers, the most interesting passages are in the introduction, where the candidate argues that Mexico needs a leadership that listens to and is inclusive of multiple points of view.  She addresses some of Mexico’s challenges with brief ideas about how she might tackle them – improving education, stimulating exploration in the energy sector, and improving competitiveness in the economy – but her main message appears to be that she is someone who can bring together diverse people to solve problems, rather than offering hard-and-fast solutions to specific problems.  Cynics will find this approach too wishy-washy and feel it lacks true substance, but she clearly wishes to position herself as an open-minded candidate that can bridge the multiple cleavages in Mexican politics and voters can judge if they believe in her ability to do it.

Finally, the earliest of the three books, published in 2010, is by Andrés Manuel López Obrador.  In this book, La Mafia que se adueñó de México… y el 2012, he argues that Mexico is run by thirty people who have an inordinate degree of influence and have bent the country to their will.  He identifies by name, in quite some detail, each of these people and the influence they have had.  Most are business leaders but a few are PRI and PAN politicians.  His basic thesis is that Mexico once had a strong, if imperfect, state, but that the state has now become weaker (since the late 1970s) and special interests have come to dominate.  Cynics will wonder if power has not actually become far more decentralized than he claims, with quotas of power distributed among business leaders, labor leaders, governors, and key politicians in each of the parties, and note that López Obrador himself is part of the many veto players who now dominate the country’s political scene.  However, it is up to voters to judge his thesis, and it clearly has found resonance with a sector of the electorate. More recently, López Obrador has tried to moderate this message a bit, appealing for a “Republic of Love” (una república amorosa) in a recent letter published in La Jornada.  This new thesis does not abandon the idea of a mafia of power, but does suggest he wants to govern for all Mexicans rather than just tear down the existing power structure, building on the ethical and moral strengths that exist within Mexican society.  As with the other two candidates, it will be up to Mexicans to judge both the message and the messenger.

None of the three books is sufficient to understand the candidates themselves, but they offer an important glimpse into their thinking and the arguments they want to make to be elected president in 2012.   It will be up to the citizens to decide which arguments – and which candidates – convince them.

Andrew Selee is Director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

Peña Nieto

A new poll confirms Enrique Peña Nieto’s lead, but by a decreasing margin. Michoacán state officials prepare for a new mayoral election in Morelia, but avoid a rematch in the gubernatorial race. The Mexico City mayoral contest heats up, and the campaign teams of several potential presidential candidates are expanded. Lastly, two American analysts assess the nature and impact of the presidential race.

The polls

A new Mitofsky poll reveals a dip in support for Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI), from 44.6 to 42 percent, though he still leads his closest potential rival, Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN), by a margin of two to one. Reuters attributes the drop for Peña Nieto to his series of recent gaffes in public appearances.   While not good news for the presumed frontrunner, some had speculated he would see a greater decline and thus his “inevitability” factor might be punctured.  He seems to have survived that possibility for now.

Vázquez Mota leads her two competitors for the PAN nomination by more than ten points among PAN voters, who will decide on their candidate on February 5^th.  In theoretical matchups with candidates from other parties, her support has steadily increased amongst all voters, now stands at 20.8 percent.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador trails the other two parties, though his popularity has increased. He polled 17.2 percent in this poll conducted in December, compared to 16.1 percent in November.

Upcoming mayoral elections: Morelia and Mexico City

Morelia

A new Morelia mayoral election will be held on June 3^rd, 2012. The first vote, held in November 2011, was annulled on December 28^th, 2011  because of what the Electoral Tribunal ruled was a violation of the ban on campaigning during the final days of the contest (see our analysis from last week). The PRI will run the same candidate, Wilfrido Lázaro Medina; the PAN and PRD have not selected theirs yet. The electoral tribune decided not to nullify the results of the Michoacán gubernatorial race, which the PAN had also petitioned to be reversed.

The Mexico City mayoral race, to be held on July 1^st, has heated up as well. The PAN’s candidate, decided by a select group of party leaders, will be activist Isabel Miranda de Wallace. After her son was kidnapped in 2005, Miranda de Wallace has promoted anti-kidnapping laws through her organization “Alto al secuestro” (“Stop kidnappings”). She was awarded the national human rights prize in 2010.

The PRD, which has as many as twelve interested candidates, held a poll this weekend (January 14-16) to determine its candidate. The leader is former Mexico City attorney general Miguel Ángel Mancera, followed by Alejandra Barrales, President of the Government Commission of the Federal District’s Legislative Assembly. The results of the poll are forthcoming.

Campaign staff

Gil Zuarth

The campaign teams of the presidential aspirants have seen some additions in the past week. PAN frontrunner Josefina Vázquez Mota has named Roberto Gil Zuarth, a former advisor to President Calderón, her campaign manager. Former Michoacán gubernatorial candidate Luisa María Calderón joined the campaign team of Ernesto Cordero, one of Vázquez Mota’s two rivals for the PAN nomination, reinforcing perceptions that President Calderón and his political allies are lining up behind Cordero. The three contenders will participate in a debate tonight (January 17^th).

El Informador notes the number of intellectuals supporting PRD candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s campaign. His platform, according to the newspaper, reflects his close relationship with writer Elena Poniatowska, historian and academic Lorenzo Meyer, political scientist Arnaldo Córdova, and philosopher and diplomat José María Pérez Gay.

Views from the United States

Olson

The New York Times featured commentary by Mexico Institute Senior Advisor Eric Olson on the presidential election’s impact on the fight against organized crime. While all the candidates have vowed to reign in the military and increasingly rely on civilian forces, Olson doubts how quickly changes will be made. “My hunch,” he says, “is that it will be a slow process.”

The Council on Foreign Relations’ Shannon O’Neil writes in a blog piece about the potential movement in the months leading up to the July election:

Though many see the race as locked up [in favor of the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto], there are still six long months to go. The PAN has yet to choose its hopeful, and current front-runner Josefina Vázquez Mota could shake up the race as the first female presidential candidate from one of the main political parties (and due to her distance from President Calderón). AMLO too has been working to revamp his image away from the combativeness of the last five years, talking to the media about “love and peace,” and saying recently, “I want to be the Mexican Lula,” the market friendly former president of Brazil. His poll numbers have risen, and even some business leaders have switched over to AMLO’s camp. Peña Nieto has stumbled a few times in unscripted moments, for instance when he couldn’t name his favorite books (even as he hawked his own campaign book) at the Guadalajara International Book Fair.  Some wonder if he can hold his own in a debate.