The Week in Review: 6/25/2012

June 25, 2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/25/2012

Less than a week remains before the July 1 election: Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI-PVEM) leads by a steady 12 to 16 percent and his party looks likely to claim up to five of the current gubernatorial races. New studies suggest this support is largely due to economic voting, not security concerns, and the candidates and their foreign policy advisors address their policy positions in two sessions. Read the rest of this entry »


The Polls: 6/21/2012

June 21, 2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/21/2012

Five new polls place Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI-PV) 12 to 16 percentage points ahead of his nearest rival, which most find to be Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD-PT-MC). The standings in each poll have remained largely constant over the past three weeks, which encompass the final presidential debate held June 10. Read the rest of this entry »


Mexico’s 2012 Elections: Key Issues and Critical Questions Now and Beyond

June 18, 2012

Eric L. Olson, The Mexico Institute, 6/18/2012

Olson

With mere days before Mexico’s July 1st federal election the country of 114 million, with roughly 77 million eligible voters, is on the cusp of deciding what direction it will take for the next six years and possibly beyond.  An election that just weeks ago appeared settled with a clear frontrunner and little movement in the polls has more recently reflected new dynamics in the race and added an element of uncertainty.

In this context, undecided voters, those on the sidelines and the previously uninvolved have begun to shift election dynamics.  The election has effectively gone from a boring and predictable affair with the only remaining question the margin of victory, to one in which the final election outcome may not be clear, with a modicum of uncertainty injected into the process.  The remaining question is whether momentum and passion will swing decisively to AMLO or Vázquez Mota enabling either to overcome the vaunted organizational capacity of the PRI and Peña Nieto’s commanding lead in the polls.

Whether AMLO or Vázquez Mota emerges as the primary alternative to Peña Nieto will depend in large part on the “second choice preferences” of each candidate’s supporters.   Possibly the biggest challenge for both will be to convince voters to support them as the best alternative to Peña Nieto when their candidate no longer seems violable.  For example, if PAN supporters decide their candidate cannot win, will they vote for Peña Nieto to ensure that the country does not move to the left with AMLO, or will they vote for AMLO because of their historic antipathy to the PRI and refusal to return power to the party they defeated in 2000.  Most polls suggest that PAN voters lean to the PRI as their second choice, and a recent statement from former President Vicente Fox, the first one to defeat the PRI, seemed to call on PAN sympathizers to support the PRI over the PRD and AMLO.

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The Week in Review: 6/18/2012

June 18, 2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/18/2012

New polls suggest that the final presidential debate on June 10 did not dramatically alter the electoral landscape, while a series of developments indicate the future of security policy in Mexico. Read the rest of this entry »


The Polls: 6/14/2012

June 14, 2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/14/2012

We will have to wait until next week to see the full impact of the June 10 presidential debate on opinion polls, but one available poll suggests that it was marginal: frontrunner Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) has kept his lead and the other candidates maintained the same support.


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The Week in Review: 6/11/2012

June 11, 2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/11/2012

The second and final debate between the presidential candidates was broadcast, due to popular pressure, on Mexico’s national television stations on June 10. In the event held exactly three weeks before the July 1 election, frontrunner Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) once again held his own, thereby defending his lead. Observers disagreed on the winners and losers of the debate but most noted that the debate was unlikely to be a game changer in this electoral contest. The battle for second place, however, may be affected. Read the rest of this entry »


The Polls: 6/7/2012

June 7, 2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/7/2012

[With less than a month remaining before the July 1st elections, we will provide weekly analysis on the standings and trends in the polls.]

The Reforma poll published on May 31 which showed Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) just four points behind Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) remains an outlier, though three new polls reflect a narrowing of the race between the two candidates to around 14 percent.

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