The Week in Review: 5/21/2012

May 21, 2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 5/21/2012

After the devastating finding of 49 dismembered bodies on a highway outside Monterey that rocked the country on May 13, experts highlighted the surprising lack of attention of the major presidential candidates to concrete security solutions. Dr. Duncan Wood writes for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) about the impact of the economic situation on the upcoming elections, while Fitch Ratings determines the impact of the July 1 election to be “neutral” on the country’s creditworthiness. Read the rest of this entry »


The Week in Review: 4/16/2012

April 16, 2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 4/16/2012

The PAN’s Josefina Vázquez Mota seeks to solidify party unity by expanding her campaign team, while the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto gets more specific on security policy and the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador reassures business leaders. Read the rest of this entry »


The Week in Review: 3/5/2012

March 5, 2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 3/5/2012

Biden

A new poll shows Enrique Peña Nieto ahead of Josefina Vázquez Mota by only seven points, while another suggests a difference of 17 points. Meanwhile, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden visits Mexico in the midst of a debate in the region about drug legalization; we look at the stances of the three Mexican presidential candidates on the issue. Read the rest of this entry »


Is Mexico ready for a woman President?

February 14, 2012

Eric L. Olson and Diana Murray Watts, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 02/14/2012

The selection of Josefina Vázquez Mota on February 5th as the PAN’s standard bearer for next July’s presidential election has injected a new historical element into the contest. As the first woman presidential candidate from a major political party, many are wondering whether Mexico is ready to elect its first “Presidenta.”

We had the opportunity to put the question to her directly during a forum the Mexico Institute cosponsored with the Inter-American Dialogue on October 21st, 2011 (see her full presentation here.) Her response was unequivocal: “I have the absolute certainty that Mexico is ready for a woman to be President of the Republic.” Read the rest of this entry »


2/13/2013: The presidential candidates

February 13, 2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 2/13/2013

Fresh off her victory in the PAN primary, Josefina Vázquez Mota has solidified second place in the presidential race, according to a new Mitofsky poll. Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) is clearly still the frontrunner with 40 percent support, but no longer seems invincible. From the peak of 25 points, Peña Nieto’s lead is 16 points above Vázquez Mota (she polls 24 percent). Vázquez Mota outpolled Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) by more than the margin of error for the first time, six points ahead of his 17.7 percent. (Note: the second graph reflects the “effective vote,” excluding those who gave no preference.)


The Week in Review: 1/23/2012

January 23, 2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 1/23/2012

Mancera

Former Mexico City attorney general Miguel Ángel Mancera wins the PRD’s internal poll, and with it the nod to represent the party in the July 1st mayoral election. The PRI breaks its electoral alliance with PANAL, the party led by teachers union boss Elba Esther Gordillo, while the presidential hopefuls from the PAN participate in a debate. The PRD´s presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador signs an economic pact with business leaders. Lastly, Mexican Institute colleagues offer views on the evolving electoral landscape. Read the rest of this entry »


Reading the Candidates

January 18, 2012

Andrew Selee, Al Día: News and Analysis from the Mexico Institute, 1/18/2012

Selee

It is a worthwhile exercise to read the books that the Mexican presidential candidates have produced over the past two years.  Each gives a look into the perspectives and unique approach of the candidate – or at least what they hope to project to the Mexican electorate in the upcoming elections.

Enrique Peña Nieto’s book, México: la gran esperanza, Un Estado Eficaz para una democracia de resultados, is the most recent and the most complete one.  It provides a comprehensive proposal for a new PRI administration under his leadership, with the central thesis that Mexico needs to build an efficient and effective state to deal with its contemporary problems.  He addresses issues that range from energy reform, allowing public/private partnerships, to fiscal changes in order to raise revenue to political reform to build a majority-based government.  A cynic might note that the PRI has supported few of these efforts to date, and that the candidate himself stumbled badly in presenting the book at the International Book Fair in Guadalajara, but the book itself is filled with impressive statistics and well-reasoned proposals.  It will be up to Mexican citizens to decide if they believe these proposals or the one who makes them. Read the rest of this entry »


1/10/2012: Preferences by candidate and party (Mitofsky data)

January 10, 2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 1/10/2012

New Mitofsky data shows that the closest presidential election would be between Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI), Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD), and Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN). Vázquez Mota continues to be the favorite of the three possible PAN contenders; the party will select its candidate in February.

  • Peña Nieto polls ahead of candidates from all other parties, but the breakdown varies based on the PAN’s candidate. Vázquez Mota would poll 21 percent compared to Peña Nieto’s 42 percent and López Obrador’s 17 percent. Santiago Creel would beat López Obrador, but by only one point (19 to 18 percent). Ernesto Cordero would trail the PRD candidate by 4 points (15 to 19 percent).

Read the rest of this entry »


The Week in Review: 1/9/2012

January 9, 2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 1/9/2012

Happy New Year and welcome to the election year! In recent weeks, electoral laws limited campaigning for “candidates únicos” Enrique Peña Nieto and Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The PAN announced plans for candidate debates and frontrunner Josefina Vázquez Mota suggests boosting private investment in Pemex. Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) released his intended cabinet appointments, as his party fielded a wide array of contenders for the Mexico City mayoral race. The PRI faced the reversal of its November victory in the Morelia mayoral election. Read the rest of this entry »


Oil reform and the presidential contenders

January 6, 2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 1/6/2012

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has published a new piece by Duncan Wood on the presidential candidates and the potential for oil reform in Mexico:

Since Enrique Peña Nieto (EPN) announced in November of 2011 that he would seek a full scale oil reform to allow Pemex to follow a Petrobras-like business model, the issue has become one of the most talked about themes in the campaign for the July 2012 elections. Peña Nieto’s call for a change in Mexico’s legislation to allow Pemex to work more freely with the private sector has spurred the other leading candidates to formulate their own ideas on the future of the Mexican oil industry. Josefina Vázquez Mota, the leading contender for the PAN presidential nomination, having immediately echoed EPN’s sentiments about the need for reform, last week began to elaborate on her plans for Pemex. Read the rest of this entry »


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