The Week in Review: 11/28/2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 11/28/2011

Beltrones

Manlio Fabio Beltrones has dropped out of the PRI primary, clearing the way for Enrique Peña Nieto’s candidacy. The news comes two weeks after the PRD united behind Andrés Manuel López Obrador on November 16^th. The PAN is now the only major party yet to select its candidate, although Josefina Vázquez Mota has emerged as the frontrunner.

The Week in Review: 11/21/2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 11/21/2011

The PRD selects Andrés Manuel López Obrador as its official candidate, who will lead a now united left. The PRI’s leading contender Enrique Peña Nieto announces his intention to open Pemex to more private investment, and the PAN’s Ernesto Cordero releases a six-point agenda.

The Week in Review: 10/17/2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 10/17/2011

López Obrador

Candidates have begun to specify their policy agendas: Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) unveiled his security, economic, and social philosophy in Washington, DC at the Mexico Institute this week, Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) released a ten-point economic plan; and President Felipe Calderón (PAN) made controversial statements to the press about security. Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN) will speak at a Mexico Institute and Inter-American Dialogue event on Friday, October 21st, and several prominent politicians and academics advocated forming a coalition government after the 2012 elections to end Mexico’s political gridlock.

The Week in Review: 9/26/2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 9/26/2011

The field of candidates in each party has narrowed and formalized, as trailing contenders drop out of the race and stronger candidates officially enter the race. With an increasingly clear field, we turn our focus to the candidate’s standings in the polls and provide links to more information about each candidate.

The Week in Review: 9/19/2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 9/19/2011

The PAN candidates have agreed to a debate, as PRD contender and Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard announces a cabinet shuffle and PRI frontrunner Enrique Peña Nieto’s successor is sworn in in the State of Mexico. The IFE determined its electoral calendar for the upcoming year.

The Week in Review: 9/6/2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 9/6/2011

There were several interesting election stories in the past week. Two new polls reflect a shift in PAN candidate preferences, and begin to hint at the headwinds the party faces in public opinion due to the deteriorating security situation. Additionally, a leaked diplomatic cable reveals a U.S. analysis of the PRD’s internal contest, and a movement within the PRD pushes a third, “dark horse” candidate for the nomination. Lastly, the PRI continues to struggle to project a new modern image while accusations of fiscal mismanagement swirl around the current party president from the time when he was governor of Coahuila.

8/31/2011: Voter preferences, by party (Buendía and Laredo data)

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide

A new Buendía and Laredo poll shows a clear advantage within the PAN for former Congresswoman Josefina Vázquez Mota; 42 percent of voters close to the PAN would like her to be the candidate. Former Congressman Santiago Creel is favored by 23 percent, and outgoing Treasury Secretary Ernesto Cordero by 14 percent. (Note: the total does not equal 100 percent because the poll included candidates still in the running at the time.)

Former State of Mexico Governor Enrique Peña Nieto leads among PRI supporters, polling 78 percent compared to Congressmen Manlio Fabio Beltrones’ seven percent.

Among those close to the PRD, Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard trails former presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador with 32 percent support, compared to his rival’s 58 percent. In the general population, Ebrard is favored by a margin of three percentage points (30 to 27).

The Week in Review: 8/29/2011

Katie Putnam and Eric Olson, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 8/29/2011

Casino Royale

There were two stories this past week with potentially large impacts on the 2012 elections. The first was the unfolding scandal and allegations of mishandling of government finances in Coahuila during the time when Humberto Moreira (PRI) was governor. Moreira is now the president of the PRI, a party seeking to shed its image as an old-style, corrupt institution in favor of a party that has transformed itself in time to win elections in 2012. Secondly, public outrage and calls for government resignations after the horrifying attack on the Casino Royale in Monterrey suggest that President Calderón and his party (PAN) face a difficult political environment as they prepare for the 2012 presidential election, which may turn into a referendum on Calderón’s security policies and frontal assault on organized crime.

The Week in Review: 8/22/2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 8/22/2011

It was a busy week for election stories, with the PRD moving closer to unity and establishing its candidate selection process; the PAN field staying wide open and contentious; and the PRI being accused of vote buying and money mismanagement practices in two states.

8/16/2011: Poll suggests any PRI candidate would beat competition if election were held today (Mitofsky data)

By Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 8/16/2011

A new Mitosfky poll shows that any PRI candidate would win the presidency if the vote were to take place today.

Enrique Peña Nieto’s 63 percent and his fellow priísta Manlio Fabio Beltrones’ 24 percent both surpassed other possible candidates from the PAN and PRD. However, the PAN’s Josefina Vázquez Mota and Santiago Creel and the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Marcelo Ebrard all polled several percentage points higher if Beltrones was the PRI candidate (between three and seven points).