The Week in Review: 5/21/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 5/21/2012

After the devastating finding of 49 dismembered bodies on a highway outside Monterey that rocked the country on May 13, experts highlighted the surprising lack of attention of the major presidential candidates to concrete security solutions. Dr. Duncan Wood writes for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) about the impact of the economic situation on the upcoming elections, while Fitch Ratings determines the impact of the July 1 election to be “neutral” on the country’s creditworthiness.

Is Mexico ready for a woman President?

Eric L. Olson and Diana Murray Watts, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 02/14/2012

The selection of Josefina Vázquez Mota on February 5th as the PAN’s standard bearer for next July’s presidential election has injected a new historical element into the contest. As the first woman presidential candidate from a major political party, many are wondering whether Mexico is ready to elect its first “Presidenta.”

We had the opportunity to put the question to her directly during a forum the Mexico Institute cosponsored with the Inter-American Dialogue on October 21^st, 2011 (see her full presentation here.) Her response was unequivocal: “I have the absolute certainty that Mexico is ready for a woman to be President of the Republic.”

The Week in Review: 1/23/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 1/23/2012

Mancera

Former Mexico City attorney general Miguel Ángel Mancera wins the PRD’s internal poll, and with it the nod to represent the party in the July 1^st mayoral election. The PRI breaks its electoral alliance with PANAL, the party led by teachers union boss Elba Esther Gordillo, while the presidential hopefuls from the PAN participate in a debate. The PRD´s presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador signs an economic pact with business leaders. Lastly, Mexican Institute colleagues offer views on the evolving electoral landscape.

12/12/2011: Party and candidate perceptions (Mitofsky data)

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 12/12/2011

The newly published Mitofsky poll, based on November 2011 data, reveals an shifting electoral field in terms of overall candidate preferences, opinions of the PAN candidates, and perceptions of the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

• Among the leading candidates, the PAN’s Josefina Vázquez Mota gained three percentage points since August 2011 at the expense of the PRI’s Peña Nieto, who lost 2.8 points, and the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who dropped by 1.6 percent. (The total does not equal 100% due to abstentions.)

8/2/2011: Two new polls reflect new trends in the electoral cycle (Reforma data)

By Andrew Selee, Director of the Mexico Institute, 8/2/2011

Reforma’s two new polls present an interesting picture of where Mexico is today and where it may be headed in the next election cycle.

• In the first poll (below), the growing optimism in the economy and direction of the country and the approval of President Calderon is remarkable.  These are not Lula numbers, of course, but they are surprisingly positive after all that Mexico has been through with the twin blows of the economic crisis and the rising violence, which had severely undermined Calderon’s approval.  Undoubtedly these numbers reflect, above all, the recovery of the economy, which has been growing at 4-5%, as well as the partial leveling-out of the violence (it is, actually, still increasing, but much, much more slowly than before).  Whether these trends hold will almost certainly affect Mexicans’ level of optimism going into the elections next year.

6/4/2011: Support by party (Mitofsky poll)

Data and charts from the Presidential Pre-Candidates, May 2011, by Mitofsky. The parties are plotted based on public opinion of them:

• As of May 2011, the PRI is the most popular popular with 36 percent of respondents ranking them positively compared to 22 responding negatively. This is the lowest point since 2010, however, as can be seen in the chart below.
• The PRD has a 24 percent favorability ranking and 22 against; the positive reponses hasn’t changed significantly over time, but the negatives are are up from 15 percent in July 2011.
• The PAN polls a 31 percent favorability ranking and 24 against. The first time the PAN received more negative responses than positive was in February 2011.