1/10/2012: Preferences by candidate and party (Mitofsky data)

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 1/10/2012

New Mitofsky data shows that the closest presidential election would be between Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI), Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD), and Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN). Vázquez Mota continues to be the favorite of the three possible PAN contenders; the party will select its candidate in February.

• Peña Nieto polls ahead of candidates from all other parties, but the breakdown varies based on the PAN’s candidate. Vázquez Mota would poll 21 percent compared to Peña Nieto’s 42 percent and López Obrador’s 17 percent. Santiago Creel would beat López Obrador, but by only one point (19 to 18 percent). Ernesto Cordero would trail the PRD candidate by 4 points (15 to 19 percent).

The Week in Review: 12/19/2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 12/19/2011

Josefina Vázquez Mota has a substantial lead over her two competitors for the PAN nomination, according to a new poll. Enrique Peña Nieto names his campaign coordinator, while the Mexican Congress finally selects candidates for the open seats in the Federal Electoral Institute. 

12/12/2011: Party and candidate perceptions (Mitofsky data)

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 12/12/2011

The newly published Mitofsky poll, based on November 2011 data, reveals an shifting electoral field in terms of overall candidate preferences, opinions of the PAN candidates, and perceptions of the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

• Among the leading candidates, the PAN’s Josefina Vázquez Mota gained three percentage points since August 2011 at the expense of the PRI’s Peña Nieto, who lost 2.8 points, and the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who dropped by 1.6 percent. (The total does not equal 100% due to abstentions.)

The Week in Review: 11/28/2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 11/28/2011

Beltrones

Manlio Fabio Beltrones has dropped out of the PRI primary, clearing the way for Enrique Peña Nieto’s candidacy. The news comes two weeks after the PRD united behind Andrés Manuel López Obrador on November 16^th. The PAN is now the only major party yet to select its candidate, although Josefina Vázquez Mota has emerged as the frontrunner.

The Week in Review: 11/7/2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 11/7/2011

A new Mitofsky poll suggests the crystallization of support for Josefina Vázquez Mota within the PAN and for Andrés Manuel López Obrador in the PRD, in the midst of the latter’s internal selection process. Regardless of the eventual candidate, however, a new BCG-Excélsior poll suggests the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto to still be “without  rival.” The gubernatorial campaign in Michoacán has been marred by violence; in the lead up to next week’s vote (November 13^th), a local mayor was killed stumping for front-runner Luisa María Calderón.

10/4/2011: Voter preferences, by party (Mitofsky data)

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide

A new Mitofsky poll shows Josefina Vázquez Mota pulling ahead within the PAN and Andrés Manuel López Obrador within the PRD in the lead-up to the July 1, 2012 presidential election.

Enrique Peña Nieto‘s lead within the PRI has not changed.