Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 12/12/2011
The newly published Mitofsky poll, based on November 2011 data, reveals an shifting electoral field in terms of overall candidate preferences, opinions of the PAN candidates, and perceptions of the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
- Among the leading candidates, the PAN’s Josefina Vázquez Mota gained three percentage points since August 2011 at the expense of the PRI’s Peña Nieto, who lost 2.8 points, and the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who dropped by 1.6 percent. (The total does not equal 100% due to abstentions.)
- Vázquez Mota would put up the strongest competition in the overall election. The following chart compares each panista’s performance against the PRD and PRI contenders in the poll.
- In the run-up to the PAN’s internal election on February 5th, Vázquez Mota has steadily increased her lead over Santiago Creel and Ernesto Cordero.
- Lastly, negative perceptions of Andrés Manuel López Obrador have decreased since their high of 42 percent in 2008. His positive perceptions has slowly risen as well.