Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 1/10/2012
New Mitofsky data shows that the closest presidential election would be between Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI), Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD), and Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN). Vázquez Mota continues to be the favorite of the three possible PAN contenders; the party will select its candidate in February.
- Peña Nieto polls ahead of candidates from all other parties, but the breakdown varies based on the PAN’s candidate. Vázquez Mota would poll 21 percent compared to Peña Nieto’s 42 percent and López Obrador’s 17 percent. Santiago Creel would beat López Obrador, but by only one point (19 to 18 percent). Ernesto Cordero would trail the PRD candidate by 4 points (15 to 19 percent).
- Among PAN members, Vázquez Mota continues to be the leader, with 54 percent support. Creel has dropped four points in the past month, to 31 percent. Preferences for Cordero have increased three points to 12 percent.
- Positive impressions of Enrique Peña Nieto have dropped to 37 percent, down six points from October.
- Perceptions of Andrés Manuel López Obrador have remained largely the same. Negative responses increased one percent to 31 in the past month; positive ones stayed at 21 percent.