Andrew Selee,* The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 4/25/2012
Today’s Reforma poll (subscription required) suggests several interesting developments in Mexico’s otherwise calm election cycle.
First, the distance between Peña Nieto (PRI, 42%) and his two rivals may be less than often thought. He is still 13 points above Vázquez Mota (PAN, 29%) and 15 points above López Obrador (PRD, 27%) – which is no small difference – but this is less of a lead than other polls have shown. It is also right on the threshhold that would give the PRI a majority in Congress (for which they need 42% of the congressional vote).
Perhaps equally important, a full quarter of the voters have not made up their mind and 15% may still change their opinion, a significant swing vote if anything emerges to shift the campaign narrative. Finally, López Obrador is clearly on an upswing, while Vázquez Mota appears to be declining slightly in support.
The conventional wisdom is not necessarily wrong. Peña Nieto is still ahead by a significant margin, Vázquez Mota is in second place, and López Obrador is in third, but there appears to be far more fluidity in this election than we have thought in the past.
*Andrew Selee is Director of the Mexico Institute.