New poll shows (limited) impact of presidential debate

Andrew Selee, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 5/9/2012


The latest in the daily tracking polls by GEA-ISA reflects what many suspected after the debate: Enrique Peña Nieto survived mostly unhurt, with a better showing than most expected, and Andrés Manuel Lépez Obrador positioned himself well to move into a tie with Josefina Vázquez Mota for second place (see our analysis).

The campaign remains fluid, and with almost two months and another debate still to go there can still be surprises that alter the dynamics.  But so far nothing has happened to alter Peña Nieto’s lead, and Vázquez Mota, who at one point seemed the best poised to challenge this lead, seems stuck in place while Lopez Obrador rises slightly.  But, then again, in electoral politics anything can happen…


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