The Polls: 6/21/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/21/2012

Five new polls place Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI-PV) 12 to 16 percentage points ahead of his nearest rival, which most find to be Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD-PT-MC). The standings in each poll have remained largely constant over the past three weeks, which encompass the final presidential debate held June 10.


Peña Nieto ahead by 12 to 16 percent

Peña Nieto

In the latest Reforma poll (June 14-17), whose previous version published May 31 caused a stir when it showed López Obrador just four percentage points behind Peña Nieto, the frontrunner’s effective lead (excluding undecided voters and non-respondents) extended to 12 percent. Peña Nieto holds 42 percent support, compared to 30 percent for López Obrador, 24 for Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN), and four percent for Gabriel Quadri (PANAL). The poll attributes Peña Nieto’s gain to his growing support in the north and south of the country, where he increased by 12 and seven percent, respectively.

The Excélsior-BCG poll (June 13-14) places the PAN candidate in second place, unlike the other four polls; Vázquez Mota trails Peña Nieto by 13 points with 29 percent compared to his 42 percent. López Obrador, who was tied at 28 percent with Vázquez Mota in the previous poll, fell to 27 percent. Quadri stayed at two percent.

Peña Nieto leads by 14 points in the latest Parametría poll (June 12-16), with López Obrador at 30 percent and Vázquez Mota at 24 percent. Quadri has four percent.

Mitofsky (June 15-17) finds a larger lead of 15.7 percent for Peña Nieto but a closer race for second. The PRI candidate polls at 44.4 percent, with López Obrador following with 28.7 percent and Vázquez Mota with 24.6 percent. Quadri polled 2.3 percent.

Peña Nieto’s advantage is 15.9 percent in the Buendía y Laredo poll (June 11-14), which finds a similar race as Mitofsky for second place. Peña Nieto holds 43.6 percent, compared to 27.7 for the PRD candidate, 25.1 for the PAN candidate, and 3.6 for the PANAL candidate.


The outlier

López Obrador

In his own poll (June 13-17), which includes undecided voters and non-respondents, López Obrador leads by 1.4 percentage points above Peña Nieto, with 27.8 percent over 26.4 percent. Vázquez Mota follows with 18.4 percent and Gabriel Quadri (PANAL) with 2.5 percent. The campaign did not reveal the company that carried out the poll.


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