12/31/2011: The Mexico City mayoral race (El Universal data)

December 31, 2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 12/31/2011

A new poll from El Universal suggests that the PRD has increased its lead as the preferred party for the Mexico City mayorship, although the PRI’s Beatriz Paredes remains the most recognizable and popular. The election will be held on July 1st, 2012, the same day as the presidential contest.

  • The PRD received the support of 32 percent of respondents in November 2011, up from 25 percent in August 2011. The PRI remained steady at 21 percent, and the PAN dropped slightly from 11 to 10 percent.

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The Michoacán Election: 11/13/2011

November 14, 2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 11/14/2011

NEW: The Mexico Institute’s Eric Olson assesses violence in the Michoacán election, and what it says about Mexico’s upcoming election season (from November 18, 2011).

All three candidates declared victory on the night of the election

With 99.03 percent of votes counted, the Preliminary Elections Results Program (PREP) declared Fausto Vallejo of the PRI the winner of last night’s Michoacán gubernatorial election. All three candidates for governor had claimed victory on Sunday night, as the front runners appeared to be in a dead heat in polls, but by Monday morning Vallejo was nearly three percentage points ahead of Luisa María Calderón (35.38 to 32.66 percent). The PRD’s Silvano Aureoles trailed with 28.91 percent.

The tight election was closely watched as an indicator of next year’s presidential race. Read the rest of this entry »

The State of Mexico, Coahuila, and Nayarit Elections: 7/3/2011

July 3, 2011

The State of Mexico, Coahuila, and Nayarit Elections: 7/3/2011

The PRI’s Sweep
Eric Olson, AL DÍA, News and Analysis from the Mexico Institute, 7/4/2011

Unofficial results from yesterday’s state elections in Mexico point to a dominant and confident PRI emerging from the first major test of the 2012 presidential election. Early results point to victories for the Institutional Revolutionary Party in three governor’s races, and in elections for mayors in a fourth.

In the most important of the elections, the PRI’s candidate for governor in the State of Mexico, Eruviel Avila, is far ahead of his rivals obtaining just over 62% in preliminary returns from 93% of the state’s 17,498 polling places. His closest competitor was Senator Alejandro Encinas of the center left coalition with roughly 21%, with the candidate of President Calderón’s party – the National Action Party – coming in a distant third at just over 12%. Read the rest of this entry »

The Baja California Sur Election: 2/6/2011

February 7, 2011

Duncan Wood, Office of the Simon Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2/7/2011

In the second of 2011’s state-level elections, the PAN has secured a significant victory in Baja California Sur. Marcos Covarrubias Villaseñor won more than 40% of the popular vote, beating the PRI into second place (with 33.52%). The PRD had held the governorship of the state since 1999, but its candidate, Luis Armando Díaz, could only win around 20% of the vote and this ended the contest in third place. This is an important victory for the PAN, coming as it does a week after the PRD won Guerrero in an election in which the PAN candidate withdrew from the race to increase the probabilities of PRD victory.

The biggest impact of these two elections, however, will be on the PRI; two elections in 2011, and two defeats. Although neither of these states will be pivotal in terms of the Presidential race in 2012, defeats there nonetheless represent a blow to the confidence of the party. The seemingly unstoppable PRI momentum that has been building prior to the summer of 2010 appears to be hitting some bumps in the road. And we must remember that victories by the PRD and the PAN at the state level will impact on the capacity of the PRI to mobilize its famous party machine to generate votes in 2012.

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The Guerrero Election: 1/30/2011

February 1, 2011

 Katie Putnam, AL DÍA: News and Analysis from the Mexico Institute, 2/1/2011

The results from Guerrero’s gubernatorial election this Sunday illuminate the personalities and evolving strategies in Mexican politics in the lead-up to the 2012 presidential race.

First, the relatively clean election itself ended a contentious, often dirty, and surprising campaign with questionable front runners. The two principal candidates were reputedcaciques from Guerrero’s darker past; Ángel Aguire Rivero (PRD coalition), a PRI cardholder until August with suspicions of human rights abuses as an interim governor in the late 1990s, beat Acapulco Mayor Manuel Añorve (PRI coalition), accused of being on the payroll of drug cartels. (Both candidates strenuously deny these allegations.)

In any case, the alliance around the PRD was greatly, and unexpectedly, strengthened in the final days of the campaign when the trailing PAN candidate withdrew and threw his support to the coalition. In the end, the PRD coalition, headed by a man the party itself accused of abuses two decades ago, proved more appealing to voters than the PRI alternative, and by a margin of about 14 percent.

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