The Week in Review: 9/6/2011

September 6, 2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 9/6/2011

There were several interesting election stories in the past week. Two new polls reflect a shift in PAN candidate preferences, and begin to hint at the headwinds the party faces in public opinion due to the deteriorating security situation. Additionally, a leaked diplomatic cable reveals a U.S. analysis of the PRD’s internal contest, and a movement within the PRD pushes a third, “dark horse” candidate for the nomination. Lastly, the PRI continues to struggle to project a new modern image while accusations of fiscal mismanagement swirl around the current party president from the time when he was governor of Coahuila. Read the rest of this entry »


8/31/2011: Voter preferences, by party (Buendía and Laredo data)

August 31, 2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide

A new Buendía and Laredo poll shows a clear advantage within the PAN for former Congresswoman Josefina Vázquez Mota42 percent of voters close to the PAN would like her to be the candidate. Former Congressman Santiago Creel is favored by 23 percent, and outgoing Treasury Secretary Ernesto Cordero by 14 percent. (Note: the total does not equal 100 percent because the poll included candidates still in the running at the time.)

Former State of Mexico Governor Enrique Peña Nieto leads among PRI supporters, polling 78 percent compared to Congressmen Manlio Fabio Beltrones’ seven percent.

Among those close to the PRD, Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard trails former presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador with 32 percent support, compared to his rival’s 58 percent. In the general population, Ebrard is favored by a margin of three percentage points (30 to 27). Read the rest of this entry »

The Week in Review: 8/29/2011

August 29, 2011

Katie Putnam and Eric Olson, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 8/29/2011

Casino Royale

There were two stories this past week with potentially large impacts on the 2012 elections. The first was the unfolding scandal and allegations of mishandling of government finances in Coahuila during the time when Humberto Moreira (PRI) was governor. Moreira is now the president of the PRI, a party seeking to shed its image as an old-style, corrupt institution in favor of a party that has transformed itself in time to win elections in 2012. Secondly, public outrage and calls for government resignations after the horrifying attack on the Casino Royale in Monterrey suggest that President Calderón and his party (PAN) face a difficult political environment as they prepare for the 2012 presidential election, which may turn into a referendum on Calderón’s security policies and frontal assault on organized crime. Read the rest of this entry »

The Week in Review: 8/22/2011

August 22, 2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 8/22/2011

It was a busy week for election stories, with the PRD moving closer to unity and establishing its candidate selection process; the PAN field staying wide open and contentious; and the PRI being accused of vote buying and money mismanagement practices in two states. Read the rest of this entry »

8/16/2011: Poll suggests any PRI candidate would beat competition if election were held today (Mitofsky data)

August 16, 2011

By Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 8/16/2011

A new Mitosfky poll shows that any PRI candidate would win the presidency if the vote were to take place today.

Enrique Peña Nieto’s 63 percent and his fellow priísta Manlio Fabio Beltrones 24 percent both surpassed other possible candidates from the PAN and PRD. However, the PAN’s Josefina Vázquez Mota and Santiago Creel and the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Marcelo Ebrard all polled several percentage points higher if Beltrones was the PRI candidate (between three and seven points). Read the rest of this entry »

The Week in Review: 8/16/2011

August 16, 2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 8/16/2011

Vázquez Mota

Most of the candidates in the three major political parties were in the news this past week, using their current positions as a platform for promoting their candidacy. Enrique Peña Nieto emphasized his achievements as governor of earlier campaign promises, Andrés Manuel López Obrador criticized the Calderón administration for allowing U.S. agents to operate in Mexico, and Josefina Vázquez Mota delivered her annual address as head of the PAN in Congress. Read the rest of this entry »

8/15/2011: AMLO or Ebrard? PRD and non-PRD preferences (BGC-Excélsior data)

August 15, 2011

By Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 8/15/2011

Ebrard and López Obrador

A new BGC-Excélsior poll comparing Marcelo Ebrard and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is particularly illuminating in light of the PRD’s decision to select its presidential candidate through an open poll of party members.

The vote will be very interesting. The poll (below) shows that while Ebrard polls best amongst the general population by a margin of 69 percent to 31 percent over AMLO, the PRD rank and file favors AMLO: he polls 68 percent, compared to Ebrard’s 32 percent.

The question facing PRD members is whether current “electability” numbers should be the principal criteria in deciding on a candidate. Read the rest of this entry »