The Week in Review: 1/23/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 1/23/2012

Mancera

Former Mexico City attorney general Miguel Ángel Mancera wins the PRD’s internal poll, and with it the nod to represent the party in the July 1^st mayoral election. The PRI breaks its electoral alliance with PANAL, the party led by teachers union boss Elba Esther Gordillo, while the presidential hopefuls from the PAN participate in a debate. The PRD´s presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador signs an economic pact with business leaders. Lastly, Mexican Institute colleagues offer views on the evolving electoral landscape.

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1/10/2012: Preferences by candidate and party (Mitofsky data)

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 1/10/2012

New Mitofsky data shows that the closest presidential election would be between Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI), Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD), and Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN). Vázquez Mota continues to be the favorite of the three possible PAN contenders; the party will select its candidate in February.

• Peña Nieto polls ahead of candidates from all other parties, but the breakdown varies based on the PAN’s candidate. Vázquez Mota would poll 21 percent compared to Peña Nieto’s 42 percent and López Obrador’s 17 percent. Santiago Creel would beat López Obrador, but by only one point (19 to 18 percent). Ernesto Cordero would trail the PRD candidate by 4 points (15 to 19 percent).

The Week in Review: 1/9/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 1/9/2012

Happy New Year and welcome to the election year! In recent weeks, electoral laws limited campaigning for “candidates únicos” Enrique Peña Nieto and Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The PAN announced plans for candidate debates and frontrunner Josefina Vázquez Mota suggests boosting private investment in Pemex. Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) released his intended cabinet appointments, as his party fielded a wide array of contenders for the Mexico City mayoral race. The PRI faced the reversal of its November victory in the Morelia mayoral election.

The Week in Review: 12/12/2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 12/12/2011

Enrique Peña Nieto has a “Rick Perry moment” at a renowned Mexican book fair, the three PAN candidates prepare to formally register for the party’s primary, and Andrés Manuel López Obrador tells supporters he will win in 2012 as he did in 2006.

12/12/2011: Party and candidate perceptions (Mitofsky data)

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 12/12/2011

The newly published Mitofsky poll, based on November 2011 data, reveals an shifting electoral field in terms of overall candidate preferences, opinions of the PAN candidates, and perceptions of the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

• Among the leading candidates, the PAN’s Josefina Vázquez Mota gained three percentage points since August 2011 at the expense of the PRI’s Peña Nieto, who lost 2.8 points, and the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who dropped by 1.6 percent. (The total does not equal 100% due to abstentions.)

The Week in Review: 11/28/2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 11/28/2011

Beltrones

Manlio Fabio Beltrones has dropped out of the PRI primary, clearing the way for Enrique Peña Nieto’s candidacy. The news comes two weeks after the PRD united behind Andrés Manuel López Obrador on November 16^th. The PAN is now the only major party yet to select its candidate, although Josefina Vázquez Mota has emerged as the frontrunner.

The Week in Review: 11/21/2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 11/21/2011

The PRD selects Andrés Manuel López Obrador as its official candidate, who will lead a now united left. The PRI’s leading contender Enrique Peña Nieto announces his intention to open Pemex to more private investment, and the PAN’s Ernesto Cordero releases a six-point agenda.