Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 11/7/2011
A new Mitofsky poll suggests the crystallization of support for Josefina Vázquez Mota within the PAN and for Andrés Manuel López Obrador in the PRD, in the midst of the latter’s internal selection process. Regardless of the eventual candidate, however, a new BCG-Excélsior poll suggests the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto to still be “without rival.” The gubernatorial campaign in Michoacán has been marred by violence; in the lead up to next week’s vote (November 13th), a local mayor was killed stumping for front-runner Luisa María Calderón.
Josefina Vázquez Mota now leads amongst likely PAN candidates with the support of 49 percent party members, according to a new Mitofsky poll. That is a jump of 15 percent since July 2011. She now leads Santiago Creel by 13 points and Ernesto Cordero by 39 points. Active and affiliated party members will chose the PAN candidate on February 15th.
This past weekend, two polling firms selected by PRD contenders Marcelo Ebrard and Andrés Manuel López Obrador carried out six thousand interviews with members of the general population. The results of these interviews will be used to determine the party’s presidential candidate. The work of Covarrubias y Asociados and Nodo Investigación+Estrategia, to be released on November 15, 2011, will be audited by a third company. AMLO told the press that he and his Morena (Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional) movement would support the results of the poll, should Ebrard emerge as the preferred candidate. This may be unnecessary: the latest Mitofsky poll gives AMLO the greatest lead yet among PRD supporters, with 75 percent of supporters compared with 17 percent for Ebrard.
The party plans to formailize its alliance with the Labor Party (PT) and Movimiento Ciudadano (formerly the Convergencia party) by November 18th.
In other news, the Federal Election Institute (IFE) ordered a TV spot from AMLO’s Morena movement to be pulled from the air, agreeing with the PAN’s complaint that the advertisement represented campaigning prior to the officially determined campaign season.
Excélsior ran an article in the past week entitled, “Enrique Peña Nieto: still without a strong rival.” The story presents alternative ballot scenarios; the results suggest that Peña Nieto would receive majority support if matched up against the main candidates from other parties, according to a new BCG-Excélsior poll. In a contest against Vázquez Mota (PAN) and AMLO (PRD), for example, the poll suggests he would receive at least 55 percent of the vote.
With less than one week to go until the November 13th elections for governor of Michoacán, violence seems to be escalating. Ricardo Guzman, the mayor of La Piedad, was fatally ambushed as he campaigned for Luisa María Calderón, the PAN candidate and President Calderón’s sister. From ABC News:
The killing late on November 2nd of Mayor Ricardo Guzman, 45, could be the latest in a string of drug cartel threats all political parties say have occurred against candidates, and pose the specter that Mexico’s drug violence will interfere with democracy and next week’s vote. The trend is worrisome.
A Reforma poll reveals Calderón to be leading by six percentage points, having climbed ten percentage points in the past two months to 39 percent. The PRI’s Fausto Vallejo follows with 33 percent, and the PRD’s Silvano Aureoles is third with 28 percent.