The Week in Review: 9/26/2011

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 9/26/2011

The field of candidates in each party has narrowed and formalized, as trailing contenders drop out of the race and stronger candidates officially enter the race. With an increasingly clear field, we turn our focus to the candidate’s standings in the polls and provide links to more information about each candidate.

 

The PAN

González

Long-shot contender Emilio González, Governor of Jalisco, decided not to contend for the PAN’s nomination on September 22nd. The contenders for the nomination are now Josefina Vázquez Mota, most recently the PAN leader in the lower house of Congress, former Senator and cabinet member Santiago Creel, and outgoing Treasury Secretary Ernesto Cordero. The narrowed field merits revisiting the candidate’s standings in the polls and pointing observers to information on their backgrounds and positions.

Recent polls show Vázquez Mota leading by a significant margin within the PAN. The Buendía and Laredo poll from August 31 show her with a decisive edge among PAN supporters; 42 percent of respondents would like her to be the candidate. Creel is favored by 23 percent, and Cordero by 14 percent. (Note: the total does not equal 100 percent because the poll included candidates still in the running at the time.)

For background on these three remaining candidates, including biographies, analysis, and links, visit our candidate pages for Vázquez Mota, Creel, and Cordero (which features an excellent new piece by the Mexico 2012 project’s Dr. Duncan Wood). Follow us on Twitter (@MxElectionNews) for breaking stories related to the candidates and general election news.

 

The PRI

Peña Nieto

With frontrunner Enrique Peña Nieto officially in the race as of September 19th, several U.S. newspapers ran profiles of the former governor of the State of Mexico. The Atlantic Monthly focuses on on Peña Nieto’s style and record in office:

“Peña Nieto has enjoyed enormous clout from his control of the State of Mexico, or Edomex, whose gross domestic product is $77 billion and whose population of 15 million (with an estimated 10 million voters) outnumbers that of any other Mexican state.

As part of his gubernatorial campaign, Peña Nieto traveled through the state’s 125 municipalities asking residents what public works they needed. Before leaving, he would take out his pen, sign their wish list, and pledge to deliver whatever he signed. Peña Nieto signed his name more than 600 times and called the promises compromisos, or “commitments.” The segment of highway we’re flying over is Compromiso No. 496.”

A BBC article quotes political analyst and ITAM professor Denise Dresser, who has called Peña Nieto a “Potemkin politician,” on his ties to the PRI machine:

“The PRI has in Pena Nieto a handsome candidate, fresh-faced, who doesn’t look like the vintage dinosaur of the PRI’s past,” says Dresser. But in many ways Mr Pena Nieto is just a front, she says. “Behind him are the old groups, the old factions within the PRI that are poised to govern the country as they always did.”

Peña Nieto leads among PRI supporters, polling 78 percent compared to Congressmen Manlio Fabio Beltrones’ seven percent. Find more background, see Peña Nieto’s and Beltrones’ candidate pages.

 

The PRD

Ebrard

Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard has reiterated his intention to contend for the PRD’s nomination, but announced he will wait to see the results from an internal poll to decide if he will leave his post on January 1st, as election law dictates.

Among those close to the PRD, Ebrard trails former presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador with 32 percent support, compared to his rival’s 58 percent. In the general population, Ebrard is favored by a margin of three percentage points (30 to 27). Visit the candidate pages for Ebrard and López Obrador for more background.

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