This page is dedicated to providing the most recent polling data. It is frequently updated with new graphs and analysis as new polling data is released.
- In a new BGC-Excelsiór poll, fifty percent of probable voters favor the PRI in the lead-up to the 2012 presidential race.
- The PAN followed with 27 percent.
- The PRD polls 16 percent.
- A new Mitofsky poll shows Josefina Vázquez Mota pulling ahead within the PAN and Andrés Manuel López Obrador within the left.
- Enrique Peña Nieto‘s lead within the PRI has not changed.
- A new Buendía and Laredo poll shows a clear advantage within the PAN for former Congresswoman Josefina Vázquez Mota; 42 percent of voters close to the PAN would like her to be the candidate. Former Congressman Santiago Creel is favored by 23 percent, and outgoing Treasury Secretary Ernesto Cordero by 14 percent. (Note: the total does not equal 100 percent because the poll included candidates still in the running at the time.)
- Former State of Mexico Governor Enrique Peña Nieto leads among PRI supporters, polling 78 percent compared to Congressmen Manlio Fabio Beltrones’ seven percent.
- Among those close to the PRD, Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard trails former presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador with 32 percent support, compared to his rival’s 58 percent. In the general population, Ebrard is favored by a margin of three percentage points (30 to 27).
- Enrique Peña Nieto’s 63 percent and his fellow priísta Manlio Fabio Beltrones’ 24 percent both surpassed other possible candidates from the PAN and PRD.
- However, the PAN’sJosefina Vázquez Mota and Santiago Creel and the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obradorand Marcelo Ebrard all polled several percentage points higher if Beltrones was the PRI candidate (between three and seven points).
- A new BGC-Excélsior poll comparing Marcelo Ebrard and Andrés Manuel López Obrador(AMLO) is particularly illuminating in light of the PRD’s decision to select its presidential candidate through an open poll of party members. The vote will be very interesting.
- The poll (below) shows that while Ebrard polls best amongst the general population by a margin of 69 percent to 31 percent over AMLO, the PRD rank and file favors AMLO: he polls 68 percent, compared to Ebrard’s 32 percent.
Mexico Institute Director Andrew Selee comments on Reforma’s two new polls present an interesting picture of where Mexico is today and where it may be headed in the next election cycle.
- In the first poll, the growing optimism in the economy and direction of the country and the approval of President Calderon is remarkable. Whether these trends hold will almost certainly affect Mexicans’ level of optimism going into the elections next year.
- The second poll on presidential candidates (below) confirms what we already know: Enrique Pena Nieto and the PRI are far ahead of the other two parties, enough so that if the trend does not reverse, the PRI could win a majority of seats in Congress. The PAN is in second place as a party, but it is less clear if it can keep that position.
Data and charts from the Estimación de Resultados report by Mitofsky:
- The PRI swept in all three gubernatorial races.
- In the State of Mexico (first graph), the PRI candidate for governor, Eruviel Ávila Villegas, beat his closest competitor, the PRD’s Alejandro Encinas, by 40 percent, with a total of 64 percent of the vote.
- In Coahuila (second graph), the PRI candidate, Rubén Moreira, won the governorship with 62 percent of the vote. His closest rival, the PAN’s Guillermo Anaya Llamas, pulled 35 perent.
- In Nayarit (last graph), the PRI’s Roberto Sandoval Castañeda won with 47 percent of the vote, beating the PAN’s Martha Elena Garcia, who pulled 39 percent.
Data and charts from the Estado de Coahuila: Tendencias Electorales report by Mitofsky:
- When asked who they would vote for in the Coahuila gubernatorial election if it were to take place that day, respondents overwhelming selected Rubén Moreira Valdéz, the PRI candidate (supported by Convergencia and Nueva Alianza, as well as other smaller local parties), with 65.4 percent of the vote.
- The PAN candidate, Guillermo Anaya Llamas, would be second with 32.0 percent.
- The PT and PRD candidates would pull less than 2 percent.
- According to the poll, 47.6 percent identify as priístsa, 21.8 percent as panista, 1.2 as perredista, and a full 27.5 percent responded “no party affiliation.”
Data and charts from the Presidential Pre-Candidates, May 2011, by Mitofsky. The parties are plotted based on public opinion of them:
- As of May 2011, the PRI is the most popular party, with 36 percent of respondents ranking them positively compared to 22 responding negatively. This is the lowest point since 2010, however, as can be seen in the chart below.
- The PRD has a 24 percent favorability rating and 22 against; the positive reponses haven’t changed significantly over time, but the negatives are are up from 15 percent in July 2011.
- The PAN polls a 31 percent favorability rating and 24 against. The first time the PAN received more negative responses than positive was in February 2011.
Data and charts from the Presidential Pre-Candidates, May 2011, by Mitofsky. The below graph show all the candidates, based on recognizability and opinion:
- Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) is the most popular (27.5%) overall, and is recognized by 93% of respondents. His nearest contender, Manlio Fabio Beltrones, has a 3% positive popularity but is only recognized by 46.1%.
- Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) is the most recognizable (95.8%), but has the most negative reaction (-10.5%). Marcelo Ebrard (PRD) pulls a more positive response (5.6%) but while less recognizable (76.4%) than López Obrador, more know him than any of the PAN candidates.
- In the PAN, Santiago Creel is more recognizable than second-place Josefina Vázquez Mota with 64.7% compared to her 50.8%, though people think more highly of Vázquez Mota (1.9% vs. -3.4%).
Data and charts from the Presidential Pre-Candidates, May 2011, by Mitofsky. The below graph show the support for each pre-candidate, over time:
- In the PAN, Josefina Vázquez Mota remains less popular than Santiago Creel, but has rapidly risen in the past five months and appears on track to close the gap.
- In the PRI, support for Enrique Peña Nieto continues to increase and remain far ahead of the nearest competitor.
- Support for both PRD pre-candidates has wavered slightly over the past five months, but Andrés Manuel López Obrador retains far more support than Marcelo Ebrard.