Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 5/21/2012
After the devastating finding of 49 dismembered bodies on a highway outside Monterey that rocked the country on May 13, experts highlighted the surprising lack of attention of the major presidential candidates to concrete security solutions. Dr. Duncan Wood writes for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) about the impact of the economic situation on the upcoming elections, while Fitch Ratings determines the impact of the July 1 election to be “neutral” on the country’s creditworthiness. Read the rest of this entry »
Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 5/14/2012
The PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto appears to hold his lead in the polls after the first presidential debate, and some observers bemoan the lack of interest among young Mexicans in the election and politics more generally. Read the rest of this entry »
Andrew Selee, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 5/9/2012
Selee
The latest in the daily tracking polls by GEA-ISA reflects what many suspected after the debate: Enrique Peña Nieto survived mostly unhurt, with a better showing than most expected, and Andrés Manuel Lépez Obrador positioned himself well to move into a tie with Josefina Vázquez Mota for second place (see our analysis).
The campaign remains fluid, and with almost two months and another debate still to go there can still be surprises that alter the dynamics. But so far nothing has happened to alter Peña Nieto’s lead, and Vázquez Mota, who at one point seemed the best poised to challenge this lead, seems stuck in place while Lopez Obrador rises slightly. But, then again, in electoral politics anything can happen…
Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 5/7/2012
The presidential candidates participate in their first televised debate, accusing each other of corruption and of misleading the public. Trailing candidates focus their criticisms on the frontrunner, Enrique Peña Nieto, who did not appear to suffer any fatal blows. Observers disagreed on the best performance of the evening, which suggests that no candidate had a clear win. Read the rest of this entry »
The first presidential debate in Mexico’s 2012 elections took place on Sunday, May 6th, 2012. The debate between Enrique Peña Nieto of the PRI, Josefina Vázquez Mota of the PAN, Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the PRD, and Gabriel Quadri de la Torre of PANAL was the first of two debates mandated by Mexico’s electoral law. Our analysis of the session is available here.
The IFE, Mexico’s Federal Electoral Institute, has posted the debate online on its YouTube account.
El Universal, one of Mexico’s leading newspapers, has published its exit poll following the debate. According to El Universal’s poll, 36.3% said that if the elections were held today, they would vote for Peña Nieto; 23.4% would vote for López Obrador, 22.0% would chose Vázquez Mota and 9.5% would prefer Quadri.
When asked who, in their opinion, won the presidential debate, 31.6% of the respondents considered Peña Nieto to be the victor candidate, 20.8% voted in favor of López Obrador, 18.4% voted for Quadri and 17.3% for Vázquez Mota. It is worth noting that 11.9% of the respondents considered neither candidate to have won the debate.
The Mexican news source, Animal Político, offers a fresh new take on the discussion of the presidential debate through Palenque, an online forum to exchange ideas on key questions regarding contentious issues in Mexico. Opinion leaders and experts from different disciplines comment on the discussion question: ¿Quién ganó y quién perdió el debate? ¿Por qué? (Who won and who lost the debate? Why?). Click here to follow the debate.
Eric L. Olson and Diana Murray Watts, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 4/30/2012
The 2012 Mexican presidential election has already broken new ground in a number of ways: it is the first to feature a female candidate from a major party and the first to incorporate the electoral reform law of 2007. A third, and perhaps most important, is the extensive use of social media by all three of the major presidential candidates. It is too early to tell if the social media will be a determining factor or have a major influence, but there is little doubt that it has become a major new form of campaigning in Mexico.
During the 2006 presidential election, social media was in its infancy. At the time, Facebook was still largely limited to users in educational institutions. YouTube was mostly a hub for short, humorous videos. Twitter had yet to be officially launched. Since then, however, the entire landscape of media and communications have been dramatically altered by the rise of social media. The 2008 U.S. presidential campaign 2008 saw the first major use of such platforms by candidates, and four years later Mexican campaigns seem to be adapting these experiences to the Mexican political landscape.
The three leading candidates vying for the Mexican presidency have made ample use of social media to boost their campaigns. Each candidate, however, has exhibited a unique style in their use of these platforms, particularly since the official permissible start date of their campaigns on March 30th, 2012.
Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 4/30/2012
Videgaray
The Wall Street Journal publishes an interview with Enrique Pena Nieto’s campaign chief, while Andrés Manuel López Obrador talks security in Monterrey and a new Reforma poll suggests the race may be closer than the conventional wisdom indicates.
Andrew Selee,* The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 4/25/2012
Today’s Reforma poll (subscription required) suggests several interesting developments in Mexico’s otherwise calm election cycle.
First, the distance between Peña Nieto (PRI, 42%) and his two rivals may be less than often thought. He is still 13 points above Vázquez Mota (PAN, 29%) and 15 points above López Obrador (PRD, 27%) – which is no small difference - but this is less of a lead than other polls have shown. It is also right on the threshhold that would give the PRI a majority in Congress (for which they need 42% of the congressional vote).
Perhaps equally important, a full quarter of the voters have not made up their mind and 15% may still change their opinion, a significant swing vote if anything emerges to shift the campaign narrative. Finally, López Obrador is clearly on an upswing, while Vázquez Mota appears to be declining slightly in support.
The conventional wisdom is not necessarily wrong. Peña Nieto is still ahead by a significant margin, Vázquez Mota is in second place, and López Obrador is in third, but there appears to be far more fluidity in this election than we have thought in the past.
*Andrew Selee is Director of the Mexico Institute.
Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 4/23/2012
With just over two months left before the July 1st elections, the PRI’s Peña Nieto continues to secure his lead in the presidential contest as the PAN and PRD candidates struggle for second place. Some polls put the PRI-Green Party (PV) alliance ahead in congressional elections, while the PRD’s mayoral candidate leads by a wide margin in the Mexico City race. The polls are not promising for the governing PAN party. Read the rest of this entry »
Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 4/16/2012
The PAN’s Josefina Vázquez Mota seeks to solidify party unity by expanding her campaign team, while the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto gets more specific on security policy and the PRD’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador reassures business leaders. Read the rest of this entry »
This site provides a comprehensive guide to the best resources on the 2012 Mexican elections by the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center. You can find background on the political parties and candidates, follow where they stand in the polls, check their stance on security, the economy and on other important topics, find sites for further reference, and review the key dates and moments in the lead-up to the election itself on July 1st, 2012.
After the devastating finding of 49 dismembered bodies on a highway outside Monterey that rocked the country on May 13, experts highlighted the surprising lack of attention of the major presidential candidates to concrete security solutions. Dr. Duncan Wood writes for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) about the impact of the economic situation on the upcoming elections, while Fitch Ratings determines the impact of the July 1 election to be “neutral” on the country’s creditworthiness. Read the rest of this entry »
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