The Polls 6/28/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/28/2012

The final polls before Sunday’s presidential election find frontrunner Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI-PVEM), who has led throughout the campaign, to have an advantage of 10 to 17 percentage points over his nearest rival, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD-PT-MC). Most polls find López Obrador leading Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN) by around five points; the fourth candidate, Gabriel Quadri (PANAL), trails the others by over twenty percent. Support for both Peña Nieto and López Obrador has risen slightly in the final weeks of the campaign, and the percentage of undecided voters has declined to its lowest point.

The Week in Review: 6/25/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/25/2012

Less than a week remains before the July 1 election: Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI-PVEM) leads by a steady 12 to 16 percent and his party looks likely to claim up to five of the current gubernatorial races. New studies suggest this support is largely due to economic voting, not security concerns, and the candidates and their foreign policy advisors address their policy positions in two sessions.

The Polls: 6/21/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/21/2012

Five new polls place Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI-PV) 12 to 16 percentage points ahead of his nearest rival, which most find to be Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD-PT-MC). The standings in each poll have remained largely constant over the past three weeks, which encompass the final presidential debate held June 10.

The Week in Review: 6/18/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/18/2012

New polls suggest that the final presidential debate on June 10 did not dramatically alter the electoral landscape, while a series of developments indicate the future of security policy in Mexico.

The Polls: 6/14/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/14/2012

We will have to wait until next week to see the full impact of the June 10 presidential debate on opinion polls, but one available poll suggests that it was marginal: frontrunner Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) has kept his lead and the other candidates maintained the same support.

The Polls: 6/7/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/7/2012

[With less than a month remaining before the July 1st elections, we will provide weekly analysis on the standings and trends in the polls.]

The Reforma poll published on May 31 which showed Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) just four points behind Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) remains an outlier, though three new polls reflect a narrowing of the race between the two candidates to around 14 percent.

The Week in Review: 6/4/2012

Katie Putnam and Eric L. Olson, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/4/2012

López Obrador

In a remarkable turn of events, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) appears to dramatically narrow the gap with frontrunner Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) in a new poll from Reforma newspaper. While other similarly credible polls put him much further back, it seems that the student protests and recent corruption scandals are benefitting the PRD candidate and may have hurt the PRI candidate.

The Week in Review: 5/29/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 5/29/2012

Student marches rocked Mexico City over the past week, injecting a new dynamic into the race for the first time, as Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) takes over second place in a Mitofsky poll.

New poll shows (limited) impact of presidential debate

Andrew Selee, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 5/9/2012

Selee

The latest in the daily tracking polls by GEA-ISA reflects what many suspected after the debate: Enrique Peña Nieto survived mostly unhurt, with a better showing than most expected, and Andrés Manuel Lépez Obrador positioned himself well to move into a tie with Josefina Vázquez Mota for second place (see our analysis).

The campaign remains fluid, and with almost two months and another debate still to go there can still be surprises that alter the dynamics.  But so far nothing has happened to alter Peña Nieto’s lead, and Vázquez Mota, who at one point seemed the best poised to challenge this lead, seems stuck in place while Lopez Obrador rises slightly.  But, then again, in electoral politics anything can happen…

Commentary on the Latest Poll Results

Andrew Selee,* The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 4/25/2012

Today’s Reforma poll (subscription required) suggests several interesting developments in Mexico’s otherwise calm election cycle.

First, the distance between Peña Nieto (PRI, 42%) and his two rivals may be less than often thought.  He is still 13 points above Vázquez Mota (PAN, 29%) and 15 points above López Obrador (PRD, 27%) – which is no small difference –  but this is less of a lead than other polls have shown. It is also right on the threshhold that would give the PRI a majority in Congress (for which they need 42% of the congressional vote).

Perhaps equally important, a full quarter of the voters have not made up their mind and 15% may still change their opinion, a significant swing vote if anything emerges to shift the campaign narrative. Finally, López Obrador is clearly on an upswing, while Vázquez Mota appears to be declining slightly in support.

The conventional wisdom is not necessarily wrong. Peña Nieto is still ahead by a significant margin, Vázquez Mota is in second place, and López Obrador is in third, but there appears to be far more fluidity in this election than we have thought in the past.

 

*Andrew Selee is Director of the Mexico Institute.