Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 6/7/2012
[With less than a month remaining before the July 1st elections, we will provide weekly analysis on the standings and trends in the polls.]
The Reforma poll published on May 31 which showed Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) just four points behind Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) remains an outlier, though three new polls reflect a narrowing of the race between the two candidates to around 14 percent.
A Mitofsky poll from June 5 finds that Peña Nieto’s effective support (excluding undecided responses) dropped 1.3 percent in the past week to 43.6 percent. Polls released on June 4 by El Universal/Buendía y Laredo and Parametría noted slightly larger drops, but similarly found Peña Nieto to have 43.8 percent (El Universal) or 43.0 percent support (Parametría).
López Obrador gained 1.8 percentage points since last week, according to Mitofsky, and now has 29.2 percent support; Parametría reports a gain of three points to 30 percent and El Universal records a 2.9 percent increase to 27.7 percent.
The polls find similar results for Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN) but differ on the trend: she dropped one point to 24 percent in Parametría’s poll, fell 0.4 percent to 25.3 percent in Mitofsky’s, and gained three percentage points to 26.0 percent in El Universal’s.
Gabriel Quadri (PANAL) remains steady at 2.5 percent in the El Universal poll, at three percent in Parametría’s, and at 1.9 percent in Mitofsky’s.
Overall, these polls find an average difference of 14.2 percentage points between the top two contenders, and that López Obrador gained a little more in the past week than Peña Nieto dropped. Vázquez Mota remains in third and Quadri in a distance fourth.